Estimates Are Always wrong?

I have been burned more times than I can count by bad estimates. What can a project manager do to help ensure the accuracy of estimates?

First we should understand the basics behind the estimating process (there are many more than I have listed here). Some are:

• The more unique the project, the more of a challenge it will be to get good estimates
• Estimates are only as good as the estimator is at predicting the future
• "Padded" estimates are not always bad as long as the padding is communicated (... and as long as the Project Manager is the one doing the "padding")
• An estimate is not a bid
• Estimates using sound estimating practices, performed by experienced estimators from clear specifications should never be negotiated
• Ballpark estimates are guesses and should be treated as much by the project team, management, and the project sponsor

Other items to consider when estimating are:

• Ensure the statement of work or contract is clear and understood by the person(s) doing the estimates
• Ensure that a schedule or mandated date doesn't drive the estimating thought process
• Include Risk Management in the estimating process
• Ensure that estimates take into account the skill level(s) of the person(s) that will do the work
• If your work breakdown structure (WBS) is flawed, your estimates will be inaccurate

Accurate estimating is an art and a science. The estimator (or team) must take into account historical data from past proejcts, the team's knowledge and experience, the project risks, the statement of work and other project information to make the best estimate possible.

Keep in mind when planning your project that estimates aren't hard and fast numbers. They are guesses, however they should be very good guesses if you have good estimators and are following tried and true estimating practices.

The Leadership Void

"What creates trust, in the end, is the leader's manifest respect for the followers" - Jim O'Toole, Leadership Change.

I read that quote this morning and after thinking about it I realized that in many of the places I have worked there has been a consistent lack of respect shown to the followers by the leaders, which ultimately results in a Leadership Void. A Leadership Void exists when the goals of the leaders aren't embraced by the followers. Respect, or lack of it plays a big part in helping to create this void.

So what do you do when you are in an environment with a Leadership Void. My advice is to start modeling the behaviors of tried and true leaders.

Some Leadership principles I have come to believe are:

Be consistent in what you say and do. Inconsistency shows a lack of focus. Being inconsistent will undermine your credibility with others.

As a leader you will need to provide focus, constancy of purpose, and clear direction to your team. The problem with many leaders isn't a lack of personality or charisma, it is a lack of focus and follow-through.

When leading remember "beware of no man more than thyself" - Thomas Fuller. Ask for feedback from others. Remember the higher the leader is in an organization the more blind spots he or she will experience.

A good leader is a master of the big picture and is knowledgeable of the details. A leader that isn't willing to get involved in the details is just plain lazy and won't have the respect of the team they are leading.

Be careful about negative assumptions. Leaders that are high achievers know their behavior tells the truth about their assumptions.

Leaders ensure that their followers know where they fit into the big picture.

Leaders who underestimate the intellect of others tend to overestimate their own.

Other things that are always displayed by a leader are the ability to:

Create and nurture a vision

Laugh!

Leave their ego at the door

Think before acting (not quick to criticize)

Be a risk taker

State and meet commitments

Be a role model

Be a risk taker

Have a can do attitude

Encourage success

and finally...

BE VISIBLE (IMPORTANT)

1. Walk around and talk to people (this doesn't happen much where I work)
2. Schedule monthly one-on-one interviews
3. Conduct regular formal group surveys and do something with the data
4. Pick areas where Quality is lacking and form teams to fix the problem

What do you think. I welcome your comments.

Project Management Goals for 2006

Setting Personal Goals for 2006

Since the new year has begun, it is time to look at my goals from last year and make some changes. Last year's goals (listed in previous posting) have for the most part been carried over into this year, with some revisions. While goal setting is important, measuring progress towards achieving the goals is imperative. Some measures can only be gathered by asking others for feedback. I vow to solicit feedback from my peers and incorporate their comments into my behavior.

Be an effective listener

Plan each project with the end (deliverables) in mind

Conduct more face-to-face conversations

Lead by example

Evaluate criticism from others and use it to be a better project manager

Know that failures will occur and plan (or replan) accordingly

Be positive, enthusiastic, and supportive of others